The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Report Update June 2014

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

June 2014

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending 

May 31, 2014 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

As has been the trend of late; inventory numbers are up again this month. There are now 10,908 homes on the market, up from 10,647 homes last month.  This represents a full 50% increase in inventory from a year ago, and a 2.45% increase from last month.   

Single family home inventory is up 53.27% from a year ago and  condo inventory is up 38.56%. 

The inventory number includes all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which appears to be the inventory bottom, there were 6,937.    

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – as predicted in previous reports, with the rise in inventory, more of these inventoried new homes are showing up on the MLS.  

Sales 

Overall sales were down 11.16% from a year ago and down 1.74% from last month.      

Of the sales in May, 1,750 or 66.01% were “normal”, 245 were short sales (9.24%) and 656 (24.75%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales decreased by 0.34% compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by 62.88%.  Bank-owned sales increased by 15.49% over the same period. 

The trend of the number of short sales falling faster than bank-owned has been on-going for some months.  This month we see that foreclosure sales are way up.  Both seem to may indicate that banks are electing more and more to foreclose rather than agreeing to a short sale. This could be due to two things: 1. a working theory that a foreclosure may now end up bringing an overall higher sale price than a short sale; and/or, 2. there are fewer short sale candidates with an improved economy and many foreclosures have been in process for years and can now be wrapped up.   

Single Family Home sales decreased 8.31% from a year ago, and down 1.99% from the previous month. Condo sales were down 24.01% and villa/townhome sales decreased this month by 13.26%. 

Homes spent an average of 73 days on the market in May –  four days less than last month and seven days less than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.21% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 4.11 month supply. 

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at a particular moment. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down 4.79% from last May, Orange County was down 14.21%. Osceola came in down 8.01%, but Lake County was down by 2.23%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The average median price of all homes sales has risen 13.68% from a year ago to $165,000. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 35 consecutive months. The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 9.62 percent. 

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 9% to $194,700 from this time last year, short sales rose 13.56% and Bank-Owned averages increased 10% compared to a year ago. 

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index increased to 180.86 and the first time homebuyer’s index increased to 128.62.   

Each index is inversely proportional to pricing changes. An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that average buyers earning average incomes (adjusted for the MSA) have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa.

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for April was 5.9%, down from 6.0% the previous month.  A year ago it was 7.4%. The national average is currently at 6.7%  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of Pointe Central Florida Realty Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.