The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update November 2015

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE

November 2015

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending

October 2015 (the latest now available):

Inventory

 The inventory numbers moved down again this month, albeit again just slightly. There are now 11,411 homes on the market, down from 11,553 last month and down from 11,661 homes the previous month. A year ago there were 12,507.  The current inventory is 8.76% lower than this time last year and down 1.06% from last month.   

The inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were only 6,937.  

Normal (aka arms-length) sale inventory is up 3.45% and bank-owned inventory is now down again by a substantial   39.43% from a year ago.  This is now the ninth month in a row this inventory number has dropped.  Short sale inventory is also again down 45.84% from a year ago. 

Single family home inventory is down 9.60% from a year ago, and the condo inventory is down by 6.61%.  The inventory of duplexes, townhomes and villas is down 4.49% from a year ago.  

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – some  of these inventoried new homes are now showing up on the Regional MLS.   

Sales 

There were 2,800 closings in October – a 3.05% decrease from September of last year, and down 7.07% from last month.  

Single family home sales increased only .14% while condo sales decreased by 20.35% as compared to last year.   Townhome and Villa sales were down 20.35% from a year ago at 317 properties.

The number of “normal” sales accounted for 76.82% of all sales, short sales accounted for just 3.68% and foreclosed homes (bank owned) accounted for the 19.50% balance. This is a now long established turn-around pattern.  

Homes spent an average of 71 days on the market in October –  two days fewer than last month and one less than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.96% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for a lot less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 4.08 month supply – again virtually unchanged from the previous month (4.04 month supply).

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment.

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down 8.27% from last September, Orange County was down 6.65%. Osceola came in down 6.84%, and Lake County was up by 3.44%. No statistics such as these for east Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices

The median (usually the average) price of all homes sales rose 12.50% from a year ago to $180,000, but down 1.37% from last month. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 51 consecutive months.  

The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 11.43% while condos increased 20.67%.

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales types. Individual types fluctuate. Normal (no distress) sales rose 5.95% to $195,000 from this time last year. Short sales decreased in price by 4.14% and Bank Owned properties increased in price by 7.79%.

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers.  For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood.  Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often.

The State of Florida vs The Nation

Now vs. One Year ago

Number of Sales of existing Single Family Homes –  FL up 13.40% US up 8.60%

Number of Sales of existing Condos –  FL up 8.40%  US up 3.80%

Median Price of existing Single Family Homes –  FL up 11.10%  US up 6.60%

Median Price of existing Condos –  FL up 5.10%  US up 1.90%

 Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for September was 4.8%. A year ago is was 5.8%. The “official” national average is currently at 5.4% .

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.