The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update March 2017

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE  

March 2017

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board report ending February 2017 (the latest now available):

Inventory

There are now just 8,457 homes on the market, down the 8,550 homes on the market last month.  Despite the MLS designation change as discussed in previous reports, the available inventory continues to slowly decline.

The current inventory is 12.3% lower than last year at this time when adjusted for the aforementioned MLS change (and 20.9% unadjusted) and down by 1.1% from last month.   

These inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison:  In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were only 6,937. 

Normal (aka arms-length) sale inventory is down 15.5% from last year and bank-owned inventory is now down by 52.4% from a year ago.  This is the twenty-fourth month in a row the bank-owned inventory number has dropped.  Short sale inventory declined again and is now down by 71.9% from a year ago.

It now appears that short sales and foreclosures are no longer influencing the Orlando housing market.

Single family home inventory is down 21.1% from a year ago, and the condo inventory is down by 23.5%.   

What is notable in the above statistics is that all over the Orlando MSA there have been numerous housing starts and new communities developed. Despite all of the new inventory by new home builders – which does not typically show up on the Multiple Listing Service – the inventory numbers on the MLS continues to slightly decline each month.  This infers that much of this new inventory is being readily absorbed.

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Sales

There were 2,423 closings (actual sales) in February – an increase of 9.5% from last month, and an increase of 0.3% from a year ago.   

Single family home sales decreased .9% but condo sales were up 19.3% compared to a year ago.   

Of the sales in January, 90.4% (2,190) were normal, arms-length transactions. Short sales made up only 2.1% (51) and Bank Owned properties rounded out the total with 7.5% (182).

The number of normal sales increased 17.2% as compared to a year ago.  At the same time, bank-owned sales were down 59.7% and short sales were down 46.3% from a year ago.

Sales of existing homes in the entire MSA are up .07% from a year ago.

Homes spent an average of 69 days on the market in February – two days less than last month, and 13 days fewer than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.7% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for a lot less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 3.49 month supply.  

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Regardless of what you tend to hear – there is no true Seller’s market - Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment.

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YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY –

PLEASE CONTACT US AND FIND OUT HOW WE CAN HELP!

Prices

The median (usually close to the average) price of all homes sales rose 10.8% from a year ago to $205,000. This resumes the previous 61 month record of rising prices for the Orlando MSA. Sixty-six of the past 67 months have seen year over year price increases in the Orlando MSA.       

Remember however - the median price above encompasses all sales types. Individual types fluctuate at different rates. The median price of an existing home in a “normal” transaction is $212,000 – an increase of 8.1% over last year at this time.  The price of sales involving Bank-owned homes increased by 17.8% over a year ago.

The year over year price for a single family home increased   12.0% as compared to last year. Condos posted an increase of 5.8% over last year.

Single family homes have now posted 67 consecutive months of year over year price increases.    

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers.  For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood.  Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often.

Price points and sales pace are heavily influenced by location and price-point market segment.   That is, generally homes in the $200,000 - $300,000 range will sell faster and can sell for more per square foot than a home at the $2 million price point because there are far more buyers capable of affording the lower priced home.  Thus, there is more competition amongst that group vying for that particular home.

If one were to add in the location-consideration as well, homes in the most desirable locations can sell for many times more than the same home would sell for in an inferior location.  Of course this multiple times the value factor is diminished the higher the price point.

This can be illustrated in the locations and price points most production builders opt for in Central Florida.  Here, we don’t generally see subdivision production builds of homes in the $1M and up range  - but in the $300-400s is fairly common. 

Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for December was 4.2, down from 4.4, the previous month.  A year ago it was 4.4%. The “official” national average remains at 4.7% for February.  

Average Orlando MSA Interest Rates

The average interest rate paid in the Orlando MSA last month was 4.29% virtually identical to last month’s 4.30%, and previous to that, 4.32%. A year ago it was 3.93% and two years ago it was 3.67%. Home loan rates tend to generally trend along with the ten-year US Treasury bond markets. However, the Fed voted to raise the rate it charges banks on March 16^th, 2017 and this may have some additional influence. *   

TWO YEAR MARKET RECAP AND SUMMARY

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*The interest rate statistic is over all types of loans with varying terms and conditions and should be used as trend reference number only.  Consult your lending representative for rates that would apply to you.

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.