The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update January 2020

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET

UPDATE AND YEAR END SUMMARY  

January 2020

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Geneva Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, Sorrento Florida, Winter Park Florida, Wedgefield Florida, Avalon Park Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board report ending December 2019 (the latest now available):

Inventory

Inventory decreased significantly over the past month to 7,023, from 7,562 units the previous month. This represents a 7.1% reduction from last month and a 10.8% drop from a year ago. Some of this is seasonal with the Holidays, but a large portion has followed the trend of decreasing inventory.  This continues the see-saw up and down inventory that has been the trend for some time now. However, overall, the inventory numbers have been trending downward over the past year. A year ago there were 7,872 units and two years ago there were 7,508 on the market.

These inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes. For comparison:  In August   2008, there were 24,834 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were 6,937. 

Single family home inventory represents the vast bulk of the inventory and dropped to 5,426, down from 5,922 last month.  This represents an 8.38% decrease from last month and a 12.2% reduction from last year at this time. Both condo and townhome inventory also decreased from last month and last year.   

Homes spent an average of 54 days on the market, the same as last month and two months ago. Last year it was 56 days and two years ago it was 62 days.   At the current pace of sales, there is is now an overall average of a 2.3 month supply, tighter than last month’s 2.83 month supply. Last year at this time, the supply was 3.3 months.    

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, there are other factors which weigh into supply times.  Primarily location and price point are the two other significant influencers.  Great locations will move faster than the average market and lower price points tend to move faster as well.  

Regardless of what you tend to hear – there is no true Seller’s market - Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment. That is, Buyers decide if they are willing to, or can, pay more, and by how much, in response to demand, inventory, location and price point.

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YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY –

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Sales 

There were 3,020 (actual sales from MLS listings) in December – a significant increase of 11.56% over last month (2,671) and whopping 24.7% increase from a year ago.    

Single family home sales increased 27.7% from a year ago.   

IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO BUY OR SELL

YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY –

PLEASE CONTACT US AND FIND OUT HOW WE CAN HELP!

Prices

The median (usually close to the average) price of all homes sales rose 7.9% to $249,700 from a year ago, and up 4% from last month.   

The year over year median price for a single family home was up 5.0% from the previous year at this time to $265,000. Condos posted an increase of 5.3% over last year at this time to $139,000. 

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers.  For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood.  Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often.

Price points and sales pace are heavily influenced by location and price-point market segment.   That is, generally homes in the $250,000 - $350,000 range will sell faster and can sell for more per square foot than a home at the $2 million price point because there are far more buyers capable of affording the lower priced home.  Thus, there is more competition amongst that group vying for that particular home.

If one were to add in the location consideration as well, homes in the most desirable locations can sell for many times more than the same home would sell for in an inferior location.  Of course this multiple times the value factor is diminished the higher the price point.

This can be illustrated in the locations and price points most production builders opt for in Central Florida.  Here, we don’t generally see subdivision production builds of homes in the $1M and up range  - but in the $300s-$500s is fairly common. 

Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for November was 2.4%, slightly down from the previous month. The national average is currently at 3.5%, unchanged from last month. 

Average Orlando MSA Interest Rates* 

The average interest rate paid in the Orlando MSA has remained below 4%.  It rose to 3.66% from last month’s 3.61%.  Last year at this time it was 4.38% and two years ago it was 3.97%. Home loan rates tend to generally trend along with the ten-year US Treasury bond markets.  

Market Summary

Year End Summary 2019 vs 2018 

@ The median price of a home in the Orlando market increased 7.9% to $242,000 over 2018’s median price.

@ Single Family home sales decreased by 2.8% from 2018, townhome sales were down 4.6%, but condo sales were up slightly by .7%

@ Inventory decreased by 10.79% from the end of 2018 to the end of 2019.

@ In 2019 there were 41,910 homes sold – a 1.3% decrease from 2018. All four counties in the MSA experienced a decrease. Lake -.9%, Orange -1.4%, Osceola -2.3% and Seminole was -.5%.

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*The interest rate statistic is over all types of loans with varying terms, conditions, circumstances and credit scores, and should be used as trend reference number only.  Consult your lending representative for rates that would apply to you.

The statistics cited are provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.