The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update January 2016 and Market Recap for 2015

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA REGIONAL

HOUSING MARKET UPDATE and

MARKET RECAP for 2015

January 2016

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending

December 2015 (the latest now available):

Inventory

The inventory numbers moved down again for the seventh month in a row. Residential housing inventory has not been this low since April of 2014.  There are now 10,634 11,300 homes on the market, down from 11,300 last month and down from 11,411 homes the previous month.  A year ago there were 11,557. Two years ago there were 9,421.  The current inventory is 7.99% lower than this time last year and down 5.87% from last month. 

The inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were only 6,937. 

Normal (aka arms-length) sale inventory is up 6.92% and bank-owned inventory is now down again by a whopping   49.59% from a year ago.  This is the eleventh month in a row this inventory number has dropped.  Short sale inventory is down again - 43.74% from a year ago.

Single family home inventory is down 7.68% from a year ago, and the condo inventory is down by 9.42%.  The inventory of duplexes, townhomes and villas is down 8.11% from a year ago.

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – some  of these inventoried new homes are now showing up on the Regional MLS.  

Sales

There were 2,552 closings in December – a decrease of 8.95%   from December of last year, but up 9.76% from last month.

Single family home sales decreased 11.64% while condo sales increased by 8.31% as compared to last year.  Townhome sales were down 5.56%.

The number of “normal” sales accounted for 2,008 or 78.68% of all sales, short sales accounted for just 99 or 3.88% and foreclosed homes (bank owned) accounted for the 445 or 17.44% balance. This is a now very long established turn-around pattern for the Central Florida housing market.

Homes spent an average of 72 days on the market in December –  four days more than last month but seven days less than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.92% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for a lot less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 4.17 month supply up from last month.  

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment.

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 15.69% from last December, Orange County was down 1.61%. Osceola came in down 11.91%, and Lake County was down by 5.54%. No statistics such as these for east Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices

The median (usually the average) price of all homes sales rose 9.47% from a year ago to $185,000, and up 0.54% from last month. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 53 consecutive months.  

The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 11.45% while condos increased 6.25%.

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales types. Individual types fluctuate. Normal (no distress) sales rose 2.62% to $200,000 from this time last year. Short sales increased in price by 6.14% and Bank Owned properties increased in price by 10.09%.

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers.  For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood.  Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often.

2015 Real Estate Recap Summary

The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market was an overall positive market for both Buyers and Sellers.

The overall inventory numbers went down by almost 8% with single family home inventory dropping 7.68%.  By the end of December, 43,006 residential units had closed, up from 2014’s 37,904.

Overall sales were up 15.46% over 2014. Single family homes sales increased by 16.66%, condos increased by 6.41% and townhomes increased by 18.17%.

The overall median price increased by 9.02% over 2014. The overall median price for 2015 was $178,788.  In 2014 it was $164,000.  Single family home prices were up 5.26% over 2014.

Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for November was 4.5%. A year ago is was 5.5%. The “official” national average is currently at 5.3% .

Average Interest Rates 

The average interest rate paid in the Orlando MSA last month was 4.02 up from last month’s 4.01 and the 3.86 the month before*.

*The interest rate statistic is over all types of loans with varying terms and conditions and should be used as trend reference number only.  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.