The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update February 2021

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE

February 2021

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Geneva Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, Sorrento Florida, Winter Park Florida, Wedgefield Florida, Avalon Park Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board report ending January 2021 (the latest now available):

Overview

Inventories continue to trend steeply downward as buyers vie for homes. The Orlando area gained almost 61,000 new residents in 2020 – the highest number in the last five years.  Multiple bids and sale prices in excess of the asking are now common place and this has driven prices up at a double digit rate. 

Currently COVID 19 appears to be a driver for the housing market here in Florida as the lockdowns in the north have created a stampede of new buyers looking to get out of the over-regulated and closed-down economies and areas of New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts.  

Some of the full effect of COVID 19 on the entire housing picture still remains to be seen as the executive orders for foreclosure stays has been extended a number of times.  With the vaccination rollouts in full swing, as herd immunity is reached and the economy stabilizes, the number of homes that will fall to foreclosures is still conjecture.

Inventory 

There are currently only 4,233 housing units on the market - almost 14% less than last month and only 61% of what was available just a year ago and well below what was available in 2011 when the Great Housing Market Crash inventory originally bottomed out at 6,937.   

Inventory is only 48.1% of what was available a year ago and down another 16.7% from last month alone.  

Until recently, new home inventories were picking up the slack.  But supply-chain issues created by COVID19 have increased the time for construction delivery and sales in the new home markets are having trouble keeping up.   

Homes spent an average of 49 days on the market, four days more than last month and six days less than two months ago. Last year it was 60 days.  At the current pace of sales, there is is now an overall average supply of less than two months.    

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, there are other factors which weigh into supply times.  Primarily location and price point are the two other significant influencers.  Great locations will move faster than the average market and lower price points tend to move faster as well.  

Regardless of what you tend to hear – there is no true Seller’s market - Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment. That is, Buyers decide if they are willing to, or can, pay more, and by how much, in response to demand, inventory, location and price point.

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Sales 

There were 2,727 sales (actual closed sales from MLS listings) in January, down over 25% from December 2020, but up 20.1% from a year ago.   

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YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY –

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Prices

The median price of all homes sales was up just slightly to $275,000, up 12.2% from a year ago, and unchanged from last month.   Single Family Home prices are at $297,500, up 12% from last year.  

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers.  For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood.  Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often.

Price points and sales pace are heavily influenced by location and price-point market segment.   That is, generally homes in the $250,000 - $350,000 range will sell faster and can sell for more per square foot than a home at the $2 million price point because there are far more buyers capable of affording the lower priced home.  Thus, there is more competition amongst that group vying for that particular home.

If one were to add in the location consideration as well, homes in the most desirable locations can sell for many times more than the same home would sell for in an inferior location.  Of course this multiple times the value factor is diminished the higher the price point.

This can be illustrated in the locations and price points most production builders opt for in Central Florida.  Here, we don’t generally see subdivision production builds of homes in the $1M and up range  - but in the $300s-$500s is fairly common. 

Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for December was 7.8%, down from November’s 8.6%.  In May of 2020 it was 21.7%. The national unemployment rate is down to 6.3% for January, despite the COVID 19 impact.  New policies of a new administration generally won’t be reflected in these numbers.   

Average Orlando MSA Interest Rates* 

The average interest rate paid in the Orlando MSA is now firmly broken through the 3% floor and continues to drop. The average over the past month has been 2.73%, up from 2.70% last month.  Home loan rates tend to generally trend along with the ten-year US Treasury bond markets. However the rates for specialty loans are influenced directly by the secondary investor market – those who purchase loan packages after closing.  

Market Summaries

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*The interest rate statistic is over all types of loans with varying terms, conditions, circumstances and credit scores, and should be used as trend reference number only.  Consult your lending representative for rates that would apply to you.

The statistics cited are provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.