The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update December 2016

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE  

December 2016

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board report ending November 2016 (the latest now available):

Inventory

Inventory numbers moved downward again this month.  The number is a seemingly significant drop, but really doesn’t depart from the general slow and steady decline over the past six or so months.  This is because one of the designations used during the real estate melt-down was removed this past month by the Multiple Listing Service.  This long-anticipated move took a significant number of properties from the “Active”, or available inventory number to “Pending”, or properties under contract.  What is significant is that the designation was removed as it is no longer considered warranted as the housing market as recovered significantly and sufficiently.  That the inventory number is declining at all is still significant in of itself as there is still new inventory being added via new developments all over the Orlando MSA.  

There are now 9,270 homes on the market, down from last month’s 10,025 (and 10,362 the month before). The inventory was 10,777 at the beginning of the year and a year ago this month there were 11,300. Two years ago there were 12,121 on the market.  The current inventory is 17.96% (12.40% adjusted) lower than last year at this time and down by 7.53% from last month.    

These inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison:  In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were only 6,937. 

Normal (aka arms-length) sale inventory is down 8.85% from last year and bank-owned inventory is now down by 70.47% from a year ago.  This is the twenty-first month in a row the bank-owned inventory number has dropped.  Short sale inventory declined again and is now down by 51.69% from a year ago.

Single family home inventory is down 19.12% from a year ago, and the condo inventory is down by 14.44%.   

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Sales

There were 2,481 closings (actual sales) in November – an increase of 6.71% from last month, but a decrease of 8.15% from a year ago.  

Single family home sales increased 8.42% and condo sales were up ever so slightly by 0.36% compared to a year ago.   

Of those 2481 sales in November, 88.79% (2,203) were normal, arms-length transactions. Short sales made up only 2.78% (68) and Bank Owned properties rounded out the total with 8.42% (209).

The number of normal sales increased 22.94% as compared to a year ago.  At the same time, bank-owned sales were down 52.61% and short sales were down 25.00% from a year ago.

Homes spent an average of 66 days on the market in November – five more than last month, and two more than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.92% of its then-current listing price – which is generally about average. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for a lot less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 3.74 month supply – again virtually unchanged from last month’s 3.78.  

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Regardless of what you tend to hear – there is no true Seller’s market - Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment.

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 5.77% from last November, Orange County was down 2.88%. Osceola came in up 19.23%, and Lake County was up by 18.89%. No statistics such as these for east Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA. Brevard has its own Board. In addition, oceanfront and intracoastal-front properties tend to skew sales numbers significantly).

IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO BUY OR SELL

YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY –

PLEASE CONTACT US AND FIND OUT HOW WE CAN HELP!

Prices

The median (usually the average) price of all homes sales rose 8.70% from a year ago to $200,000. This resumes the previous 61 month record of rising prices for the Orlando MSA. Sixty-three of the past 64 months have seen year over year price increases in the Orlando MSA.   

Remember however - the median price above encompasses all sales types. Individual types fluctuate at different rates. The median price of a single family home increased 10.79% as compared to last year. Condos posted an increase of 16% over last year.

Single family homes have now posted 64 consecutive months of year over year price increases.   

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers.  For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood.  Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often.

Price points and sales pace are heavily influenced by location and price-point market segment.   That is, generally homes in the $200,000 - $300,000 range will sell faster and can sell for more per square foot than a home at the $2 million price point because there are far more buyers capable of affording the lower priced home.  Thus, there is more competition amongst that group vying for that particular home.

If one were to add in the location consideration as well, homes in the most desirable locations can sell for many times more than the same home would sell for in an inferior location.  Of course this multiple times the value factor is diminished the higher the price point.

This can be illustrated in the locations and price points most production builders opt for in Central Florida.  Here, we don’t generally see subdivision production builds of homes in the $1M and up range  - but in the $300s is fairly common. 

Orlando Unemployment

 The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for October was 4.4, unchanged from the previous month.  A year ago it was 4.6%. The “official” national average is currently at 4.6%.  

Average Orlando MSA Interest Rates

 The average interest rate paid in the Orlando MSA last month was 3.82% up from 3.57% the previous month which was up from 3.53% the previous month (and 3.45% previous to that)*. 

The bond market has reacted to the recent elections and the Fed’s rate move – both of which in turn have caused mortgage rates to move upward.

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Summary

*The interest rate statistic is over all types of loans with varying terms and conditions and should be used as a trend reference only.  Consult your lending representative for rates that would apply to you.

The statistics cited are provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.