The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update December 2015

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE

December 2015

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending: 

November 2015 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

The inventory numbers moved down again for the sixth month in a row. Inventory numbers have not been this low since May of 2014. There are now 11,300 homes on the market, down from 11,411 last month and down from 11,533 homes the previous month.  A year ago there were 12,121.   Two years ago there were 9,609.  The current inventory is 6.77% lower than this time last year and down .97% from last month.   

The inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were only 6,937.  

Normal (aka arms-length) sale inventory is up 5.92% and bank-owned inventory is now down again by a substantial   39.56% from a year ago.  This is now the tenth month in a row this inventory number has dropped.  Short sale inventory is    down again 45.76% from a year ago. 

Single family home inventory is down 6.50% from a year ago, and the condo inventory is down by 9.75%.  The inventory of duplexes, townhomes and villas is down 3.86% from a year ago.  

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – some  of these inventoried new homes are now showing up on the Regional MLS.  

Sales 

There were 2,225 closings in November – a decrease of 2.84%   from November of last year, and down 22.66% from last month.  

Single family home sales decreased 4.34% while condo sales decreased by 1.48% as compared to last year.    

The number of “normal” sales accounted for 1,710 or 76.85% of all sales, short sales accounted for just 90 or 4.04% and foreclosed homes (bank owned) accounted for the 425 or 19.10% balance. This is a now long established turn-around pattern for Central Florida.  

Homes spent an average of 68 days on the market in October –  three days fewer than last month and nine less than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.99% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for a lot less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 5.08 month supply up from last month.  

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 2.36% from last November, Orange County was up 3.40%. Osceola came in down 14.81%, and Lake County was down by 13.73%. No statistics such as these for east Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices

The median (usually the average) price of all homes sales rose 10.30% from a year ago to $182,000, and up 1.17% from last month. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 52 consecutive months.   

The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 13.60% while condos increased 4.22%.  

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales types. Individual types fluctuate. Normal (no distress) sales rose 4.22% to $199,250 from this time last year. Short sales increased in price by 28.00% and Bank Owned properties increased in price by 10.45%. 

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers.  For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood.  Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often.

The State of Florida vs The Nation

Now vs. one year ago

 Sales of existing Single Family Homes –  FL up 1.20% US up 1.50%

Sales of existing Condos –  FL down .90%  US down 3.70%

Median Price of existing Single Family Homes –  FL up 12.40%  US up 6.30%

Median Price of existing Condos –  FL up 7.20%  US up 1.60%

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for September was 4.6%. A year ago is was 5.5%. The “official” national average is currently at 5.2% .

Average Interest Rates

 The average interest rate paid in the Orlando MSA last month was 4.01 up from last month’s 3.86*.

*The interest rate statistic is over all types of loans with varying terms and conditions and should be used as reference number only.  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.