The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update December 2014

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

December 2014

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending

November, 2014 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

The inventory numbers moved back down this month – forming a see-saw pattern over the past 90 days. There are now 12,121 homes on the market, down from 12,507 homes last month.  However, the inventory is still 26.14% higher than this time last year, but 3.09% lower than last month.    

Normal sale inventory is up 34.63% and bank-owned inventory is up 33.05%. Short sale inventory is again down 18.84% from a year ago. 

Single family home inventory still is up 26.16% from a year ago and condo inventory is up 25.07%.  

The inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were 6,937.    

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – as predicted in previous reports, with the rise in inventory, more of these inventoried new homes are showing up on the MLS.   

Sales 

Overall sales were up 5.31% from a year ago, but down 22.23% from last month.  Sales typically slow down this time of year with the Holiday Season in full-swing. 

Single family home sales increased 10.12% but condo sales decreased by 9.52% as compared to last year.   

Of the 2,243 closed sales in November, 1,481 or 66.03% were “normal”, 139 were short sales (6.20%) and 623 (27.78%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales increased by 5.41% compared to a year ago while the number of short sales fell by 52.56%.  However, bank-owned sales increased by 44.21% over the same period. 

This is now an established trend wherein the number of short sales are far fewer than bank-owned sales.  This month again is no exception and we see that foreclosure sales are way up again.  Both seem to indicate that banks are electing more and more to foreclose rather than agreeing to a short sale. This could be due to four things: 1. a working theory that a foreclosure may now end up bringing an overall higher sale price than a short sale; and/or, 2. there are fewer short sale candidates with an improved economy; and/or, 3. many of the bank sales are properties that were picked over previously and now represent the only “deals” left and thus are finally being bought; and/or 4. many foreclosures have been in process for years, often delayed by the lenders themselves, and simply can now be wrapped up. 

In addition, as the housing recovery continues (albeit at a snail’s pace), the reported percentage changes year-over-year will begin to diminish. As long as these numbers remain positive, indicating growth, this will be the mark of a more stable housing market. 

Homes spent an average of 77 days on the market in November –  five days more than last month and ten days longer than a year ago. The average home sold for 95.85% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 5.40 month supply. 

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 7.89% from last November, Orange County was up 6.44%. Osceola came in up 7.97%, and Lake County was up by 6.12%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices

The average median price of all homes sales has risen 6.45% from a year ago to $165,000. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 40 consecutive months. The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 5.22% while condos increased by 4.14 percent. 

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 7.34% to $190,000 from this time last year. Short sale prices rose 3.25% and Bank-Owned averages increased 21.01% compared to a year ago.

Other Sales Data

New sale contracts, also known as “pending sales” are down 9.19% compared to a year ago. New listings are up 0.61%. 

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for October was 5.6%, down from 5.7 last month.  A year ago it was 6.1%. The “official” national average is currently at 5.8%  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.