The Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update April 2014

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

April 2014

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Apopka Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending 

March 31, 2014 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

Inventory numbers are up again this month. There are now 10,343 homes on the market, up from 10,124 homes on the market last month.     This represents a 49.10% increase in inventory from a year ago, and a 1.56% increase from last month.   

Single family home inventory is up 50% from a year ago and  condo inventory is up 44.03%. 

The inventory number includes all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which appears to be the inventory bottom, there were  6,937.    

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). It is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS and instead try to rely on their overall community and brand marketing to draw in buyers.  As we reach a balanced market, more of these will be placed on the MLS for the exposure since competition for Buyers will increase with inventory numbers.  

Sales 

Overall sales were down 13.58% from a year ago but up  17.28% from last month.  This could be skewed since there are three fewer days in February than there are in March.   

Of the sales in March, 1,603 or 68.45% were “normal”, 186 were short sales (7.94%) and 553 (23.61%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales increased by 3.69% compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by a massive 68.37%.  Bank-owned sales decreased by 3.99% over the same period. 

The trend of the number of short sales falling faster than bank-owned has been on-going for some months and may indicate that banks are electing more and more to foreclose rather than agreeing to a short sale. The idea is that a foreclosure may end up bringing an overall higher sale price than a short sale.    

Single Family Home sales decreased by 11.56% over a year ago, but were up 18.75% from the previous month. Condo sales were down 18.01% and villa/townhome sales decreased this month by 4.64%. 

Homes spent an average of 76 days on the market in March –  the same number as last month and just a bit less than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.50% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. 

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at a particular moment. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down 5.82% from last March, Orange County was down 17.92%. Osceola came in down 15.47%, but Lake County was up by 2.13%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The average median price of all homes sales has risen 14.29% from a year ago to $160,000 from $140,000. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 33 consecutive months.  

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 11.37% to $191,000 from this time last year, short sales rose 4.59% and Bank-Owned averages increased 9.46% compared to a year ago. 

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index decreased to 180.26 from 191.09 and the first time homebuyer’s index decreased to 128.19.   

Each index is inversely proportional to pricing changes. An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that average buyers earning average incomes (adjusted for the MSA) have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa.

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for February was 6.2%, up from 6.0% the previous month.  A year ago it was 7.1%. The national average is currently at 6.7%  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of Pointe Central Florida Realty Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.