Orlando Regional Housing Market Update November 2013

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

November 2013

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Apopka Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending October 31, 2013 (the latest now available) -

Inventory 

Inventories continue to rise substantially.  This past month brought us to 9,470 homes on the market, up from last month’s 9,127 and up more than 2,500 additional homes since March of this year. This represents a 17.00% increase in inventory from a year ago and 3.76% more than last month.  It is actually more inventory than has been on the market in more than a year and the 7^th consecutive month that the inventory has risen.  Inventory numbers bottomed out at 6,937 in March 2013. 

The inventory number includes single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market.  Thus, despite the upturn in inventory, we still only have 4.10 months of supply and 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market between Sellers and Buyers.    

Single family home inventory is up 16.01% from a year ago and  and condo inventory is up 15.56%. 

This concurs with the uptick in new construction all around the area – mainly in the single family and townhome-condo portions of the housing market. 

The current pace of sales equates to only 4.10 months of supply, up from 3.80 months of supply last month.  As would be expected, supply is increasing with the rapid increase in inventory. Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price.

Sales 

Overall sales were down 10.46% from a year ago and down   5.40% from last month. 

Of the sales in October, 1,484 or 64.19% were “normal”, 349 were short sales (15.10%) and 479 (20.72%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales increased by 22.14% compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by a whopping 54.26% while bank-owned sales decreased by 19.90% over the same period. This continues the now-standing long-term trend of normal sales taking more and more of the sales total than those sales under distressed conditions.  However, for comparison, previous to the housing boom-bust of 2006-2007-2008, the latter two numbers were in the single digits.   

Single Family Home sales decreased by 11.17% over a year ago. Condo sales were down 10.54% and villa/townhome sales were down 3.70%.      

Homes spent an average of 64 days on the market in October –  three days less than last month but more than two weeks fewer than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.18% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down 12.78% from last October, Orange County was down 11.47%. Osceola came in down 4.61%, and Lake County increased by 1.66%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The median price of a home has risen 26.12% from a year ago to $154,500 The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 28 consecutive months.  

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 12.50% to $180,000 from this time last year, short sales rose 19.40% to $120,000 and Bank-Owned averages increased 10.08% to $95,000 compared to a year ago.  

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index rose to 189.20 from 183.20  and the first time homebuyer’s index was also virtually unchanged at 134.54 from 130.28. 

Each index is inversely proportional to pricing changes. An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that average buyers earning average incomes (adjusted for the MSA) have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa. 

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for September  was 6.4% from 6.6% the previous month.  A year ago it was 8.1%. The national average is currently 7.3%.  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.