Orlando Florida Regional Housing Update October 2014

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

October 2014 

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Apopka Florida, Mount Dora Florida, Orlando Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending September, 2014 (the latest now available)  :

Inventory 

This month brings a surprise and a break in the inventory trend as inventory numbers fell for the first time in 18 months. There are now 12,316 homes on the market, down from 13,084 homes last month. However, this still represents a 34.94% increase in inventory from a year ago, but it is down 5.87% from last month.   

Normal sale inventory is up 39.04% and bank-owned inventory is up 66.61%. However, short sale inventory is down 10.92% from a year ago. 

Single family home inventory still is up 35.48% from a year ago and condo inventory is up 31.04%.  

The inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were 6,937.    

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – as predicted in previous reports, with the rise in inventory, more of these inventoried new homes are showing up on the MLS.  

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Sales 

Overall sales were up 10.92% from a year ago and up 6.73% from last month.  

Single family home sales increased 12.20% and condo sales decreased by 8.04% as compared to last year.   Townhomes and duplex sales increased by 4.31% over the same period.    

Of the 2,711 closed sales in September, 1,848 or 68.01% were “normal”, 192 were short sales (7.08%) and 671 (24.75%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales increased by 18.08% compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by 56.26%.  However, bank-owned sales increased by 52.10% over the same period. 

This is now a well-established trend wherein the number of short sales are far fewer than bank-owned sales.  This month is no exception and we see that foreclosure sales are way up again.  Both seem to indicate that banks are electing more and more to foreclose rather than agreeing to a short sale. This could be due to four things: 1. a working theory that a foreclosure may now end up bringing an overall higher sale price than a short sale; and/or, 2. there are fewer short sale candidates with an improved economy; and/or, 3. many of the bank sales are properties that were picked over previously and now represent the only “deals” left and thus are finally being bought; and/or 4. many foreclosures have been in process for years, often delayed by the lenders themselves, and simply can now be wrapped up. 

Homes spent an average of 70 days on the market in September –  two days more than last month and exactly the same number as a year ago. The average home sold for 96.48% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 4.54 month supply. 

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at a particular moment. 

New sale contracts, also known as “pending sales” are down 12.58% compared to a year ago and 2.95% lower than last month.  Approximately 43% of these sales are normal, 33% are short sales and 23% are bank-owned.

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 10.21% from last September, Orange County was up 11.96%. Osceola came in up 25.92%, and Lake County was up by 15.28%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The average median price of all homes sales has risen 7.37% from a year ago to $167,500. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 38 consecutive months. The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 7.35% condos went up 9.38 percent. 

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 6.08% to $192,000 from this time last year. Short sale prices rose 5.77% and Bank-Owned averages increased 14.09% compared to a year ago.

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for August was 5.8%. A year ago it was 6.7%. The “official” national average is currently at 5.9%  

The statistics cited are provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties, Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.