Orlando Florida Regional Housing Update December 2013

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

December 2013

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Apopka Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending November 30, 2013 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

Once again, inventories are up.  We now have 9,609 homes on the market – up from 9,470 last month.  This is a net gain of 2,672 homes from the low this past March – a whopping 38.52% rise in inventory numbers since then.  This also represents a 22.45% increase in inventory from a year ago and is 1.47% more than last month.  It is actually more inventory than has been on the market in more than a year and the 8^th consecutive month that the inventory has risen.  Inventory numbers bottomed out at 6,937 in March 2013. 

The inventory number includes single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market.  Thus, despite the upturn in inventory, we still only have 4.65 months of supply – up from 4.1 last month. Six months of supply is considered a balanced market between Sellers and Buyers.    

Single family home inventory is up 21.77% from a year ago and  condo inventory is up 19.67%. 

Much of the rise in inventory numbers is coming from the new housing starts found around the area along with Sellers who have been stuck with their homes for the past 6+ years due to the housing crash. 

The current pace of sales equates to 4.65 months of supply, up from 4.1 months of supply last month and 3.8 months of supply the previous month.  As would be expected, the supply number is increasing with the rapid increase in inventory. Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price.

Sales 

Overall sales were down 19.22% from a year ago and down   13.26% from last month. The latter number can be somewhat expected as we enter the holiday season wherein home sales normally reach their annual lows. 

Of the sales in October, 1,368 or 66.15% were “normal”, 278 were short sales (13.44%) and 422 (20.41%) were bank-owned.The number of normal sales increased by 7.98% compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by a staggering 62.88% while bank-owned sales decreased by 22.78% over the same period. This continues the now-standing long-term trend of normal sales taking more and more of the sales total than those sales under distressed conditions.  However, for comparison, previous to the housing boom-bust of 2006-2007-2008, the latter two numbers were in the single digits.    

Also of note is a trend developing wherein banks are starting to choose foreclosures over short sales as prices have risen substantially in the past few years.  In many markets it is making more sense for them to foreclose with the idea of getting more than they would get in a short sale.  Whether this actually holds true remains to be seen. 

Single Family Home sales decreased by 18.73% over a year ago. Condo sales were down 28.21% and villa/townhome sales were down 7.56%.     

Homes spent an average of 66 days on the market in November –  two days more than last month but almost two weeks fewer than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.69% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down 23.71% from last October, Orange County was down 20.25%. Osceola came in down 15.10%, but Lake County increased by 3.02%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The median price of a home has risen 21.14% from a year ago to $155,000. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 29 consecutive months.  

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 14.19% to $177,000 from this time last year, short sales rose 12.05% to $123,250 and Bank-Owned averages increased 2.81% to $91,500 compared to a year ago. 

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index decreased to 186.96  and the first time homebuyer’s index was also virtually unchanged at 132.95.   

Each index is inversely proportional to pricing changes. An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that average buyers earning average incomes (adjusted for the MSA) have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa.

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for October  was 6.1% down from 6.4% the previous month.  A year ago it was 7.9%. The national average is currently 7.1%  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.