Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update September 2015

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE

September 2015 

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending August 2015 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

The inventory numbers moved down again this month, albeit slightly. There are now 11,661 homes on the market, down from 11,819 last month and down from 12,058 homes the previous month.  The current inventory is  10.88% lower than this time last year and down 1.34% from last month. 

The inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were only 6,937.   

Normal (aka arms-length) sale inventory is up 2.3% and bank-owned inventory is now down again by a whopping 41.45% from a year ago.  This is now the seventh month in a row this has dropped.  Short sale inventory is also again down a dramatic 51.24% from a year ago.  

Single family home inventory is down 13.29% from a year ago, and the condo inventory is now down .83%.  The inventory of duplexes, townhomes and villas is down 4.67% from a year ago.  

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – however, more of these inventoried new homes are showing up on the Regional MLS.  

Sales 

There were 3,094 closings in August – a 17% jump from August of last year.  

Overall sales were up a robust 21.81% from a year ago, but down 13.24% from last month.   

Single family home sales increased 26.23% while condo sales decreased by .87% as compared to last year.   Townhome and Villa sales were up 17.98% from a year ago to 310.

The number of normal sales increased by 37.53% compared to a year ago while the number of short sales fell by 38.02%.  Bank-owned sales increased by .75% over the same period.  All of three of these are now established trends.  

Homes spent an average of 69 days on the market in August –  the same as last month and the exact same as a year ago. The average home sold for 97.02% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for a lot less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 3.77 month supply – again virtually unchanged from the previous month. 

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 8.97% from last August, Orange County was up 12.36%. Osceola came in up 26.72%, and Lake County was up by 1.88%. No statistics such as these for east Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices

 The median (usually the average) price of all homes sales rose 11.08% from a year ago to $182,000, but down .71% from July. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 49 consecutive months.  

The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 11.33% while condos increased 13.14%.  

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales types. Individual types fluctuate. Normal (no distress) sales rose 8.58% to $221,085 from this time last year. 

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers.  For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood.  Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often.

The State of Florida vs The Nation

This month vs. one year ago 

Sales of existing Single Family Homes – FL up 21.80% US up 12.20%

Sales of existing Condos – FL up 13.90%  US up 5.80%

Median Price of existing Single Family Homes – FL up 8.10%  US up 8.30%

Median Price of existing Condos – FL up 9.10%  US up 3.20%

Orlando Area Interest Rates 

The average interest rate for Orlando homebuyers for August 2015 was 3.96% down from 3.98% the previous month.   In June it was 3.92 percent.  A year ago it was 4.16 percent.   To compare – on a $100,000 loan with a 30 year fixed term, the payment difference between this month and last month was -$1.15 per month ($475.11 vs $476.26) and -$11.58 per month between this month and the rate a year ago ($475.11 vs. 486.69)*.

Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for June was 5.2% up from 5.1% in June. A year ago is was 5.8%. The “official” national average is currently at 5.2% .

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.   

*these numbers are for mathematical comparisons only and should not be used to calculate any loan payment.  They do not represent any APR or include any fees that might be associated with a loan.