Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update September 2014

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

September 2014

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending

August 31, 2014 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

This month brings no change in the inventory trend as inventory numbers continue to rise. There are now 13,084 homes on the market, up from 12,093 homes last month. This represents a 52.57% increase in inventory from a year ago and  an 8.19% increase from last month.   

Normal sale inventory is up 56.81% and bank-owned inventory is up 86.39% while short sale inventory is up 6.65% from a year ago.

Single family home inventory is up 55.25% from a year ago and  condo inventory is up 37.23%. 

The inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were 6,937.    

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – as predicted in previous reports, with the rise in inventory, more of these inventoried new homes are showing up on the MLS.   

Sales 

Overall sales were down 15.55% from a year ago and down 3.66% from last month. 

Of the 2,449 closed sales in August, 1,643 or 67.09% were “normal”, 175 were short sales (7.15%) and 631 (25.77%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales decreased by 14.25% compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by 64.93%.  However, bank-owned sales increased by 30.10% over the same period. 

The trend of the number of short sales falling faster than bank-owned has been on-going for some months.  This month is no exception and we see that foreclosure sales are way up again.  Both seem to  indicate that banks are electing more and more to foreclose rather than agreeing to a short sale. This could be due to four things: 1. a working theory that a foreclosure may now end up bringing an overall higher sale price than a short sale; and/or, 2. there are fewer short sale candidates with an improved economy; 3. many of the bank sales are properties that were picked over previously and now represent the only “deals” left and thus are finally being bought; and/or 4. many foreclosures have been in process for years, often delayed by the lenders themselves, and simply can now be wrapped up. 

Single family home sales decreased by 13.12 and condo sales decreased by 16.41 as compared to last year.   

Homes spent an average of 68 days on the market in August –  five days less than last month and nine days less than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.82% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 5.34 month supply. 

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at a particular moment. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down 6.72% from last August, Orange County was down 7.39%. Osceola came in down 17.59%, and Lake County was up by 6.12%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The average median price of all homes sales has risen 6.45% from a year ago to $165,000. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 37 consecutive months. The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 6.05 percent. Condos went up 1.3%.

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 5.56% to $190,000 from this time last year. Short sale prices rose 25.98% and Bank-Owned averages increased 9.0% compared to a year ago.

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for May was 5.8%, down from 5.9% from the previous month.  A year ago it was 6.8%. The national average remains currently at 6.1%  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of Pointe Central Florida Realty Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.