Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update October 2012

ORLANDO FLORIDA REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

October 2012 

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board for September 2012 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

After last month’s slight increase, this month resumes the overall long term trend of declining inventory. Twenty-three out of the last 26 months now have seen Orlando Florida’s housing inventory decline. Currently there are now only 8,073 housing units on the market through the Orlando Regional Multiple Listing Service - down from 9,258 in January of this year and down from 8,128 last month.  This includes single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes. Last September held an inventory of 9,931. In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market.  At the very height of inventory in early 2007, there were more than 28,000 homes on the market. The overall inventory is down 18.71% from a year ago.  

Single family inventory is down 22.86% from a year ago, but condo inventory is up 9.82%. The current pace of sales equates to only 3.58 months of supply.  Inventory hasn’t been this low since 2005. Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a buyer’s market and anything below is then considered a seller’s market. 

Sales 

There were 2,258 closings in September, an 11.11% increase over last September, but down 16.43% from last month.    This partially reflects the cyclical downturn of purchasing during the month when schools go back in session – that is, fewer homes were put under contract in August, which equates to fewer closings later. 

Of the sales in September, 1,086 or 48.10% were “normal”, 637 were short sales and 535 were bank-owned. The number of normal sales increased by 25.84 compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by 21.07%. This reflects the trend of normal sales increasingly taking more and more of the sales total than those sales under distressed conditions. 

Single Family Home sales decreased by 3.58% over a year ago. Condo sales increased by 4.78%. As has been true since 2009 the $1-$50,000 price category leads the pack in condo sales with 31% of all condo transactions. One hundred ninety six duplex, townhome and villa sales occurred in September – a decrease of 18.67% from a year ago. As with last month; Most fell within the $100,000 - $140,000 price range.    

Homes spent an average of 84 days on the market in September, four days more than last month and just under three weeks less than a year ago. The averagehome sold for 95.8% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 5.62% from last September, Orange County was down 4.37%. Osceola came in down 16.01%, and Lake County increased by 3.72%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board). 

Prices 

The median price of an existing home was up 11.1% in September 2012 from a year ago to $125,000.  Last month the median price was $120,550. The Orlando metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 14 consecutive months.  

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices rose in all categories. Normal sales rose 6.67% to $160,000, short sales rose 1.01% to $100,000 and Bank-Owned averages increased 4.32% to $83,760 compared to a year ago. 

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index decreased to 251 and the first time homebuyer’s index also decreased to 178, more than twenty points lower than it was 90 day ago. 

This had been see-sawing backing and forth for some time, but is now trending downward as prices continue to increase.  Each index is  inversely proportional to pricing changes. 

An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that buyers have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa. 

Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for Orlando Florida – for August is 8.7%, down from July’s 9.1% but still up from June’s 8.6% which was up from May’s 8.3% - a year ago it was 10.1%.  We are still above August’s national average of 8.3%.   Part time workers and those under employed are considered "employed" under the methodology used to calculate Federal unemployment numbers.  

Average 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

The average mortgage rate for a conventional 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 3.58%, down from last month's 3.78%.  A year ago it was 4.19%.

Other News

Go Local. The WAV Group, an independent real estate industry research analyst, studied 33 zip codes in 11 U.S. markets to analyze the accuracy of website listing services. According to the study funded by Redfin, online listing services such as Trulia and Zillow didn’t have the same accuracy as broker-owned websites, in large part because licensed agents have direct access to a local Multiple Listing Service (MLS). According to the WAV Group release, “local real estate brokerage websites give consumers the most complete, accurate and timely information about homes for sale.” 

Low Inventories Frustrate Buyers. Low inventories of for-sale homes are becoming a problem for homebuyers. Almost every major market in the U.S. has posted double-digit decreases in available listings. “The buyers tend to become a little frustrated as they are seeing homes that they want to ‘think about’ – and before they can even get home to discuss it, there are already multiple offers on the property,” Sheri Moritz, a real estate broker with Wake Home Team in Raleigh, N.C., told Inman News. In Raleigh, inventories have fallen 21 percent in the past year, according to Realtor.com data. The same has been true of the Orlando Market with a 19% decline from a year ago. 

Always Get An Inspection Before Buying.   Nearly every real estate expert recommends that Buyers get an independent and licensed home inspector to fully inspect the home before moving forward to closing.  Bringing over friends or relatives is to save the estimated $300 to $600 cost is unwise. Serious flaws in the property can easily cost a buyer ten times that amount and much more later. 

New Twist on Old Scam.  Schemers have been advertising government bank-owned properties as rental property.  Would-be renters make application – giving the schemer all of his or her personal information and then are quickly accepted and then remit the deposits and advance rent.  Most don’t find out until the day of move-in that they have been scammed out of both their money and identity. 

Bankruptcy Doesn’t Stop Foreclosure Judgments.  Filing bankruptcy often will result in foreclosure judgments later as the banks go through the steps to reclaim their collateral.

IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO BUY OR SELL YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY –

PLEASE CONTACT US AND FIND OUT HOW WE CAN HELP!

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.