Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update November 2012

ORLANDO FLORIDA REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

November 2012

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board for

October 2012 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

After last month’s slight decrease, this month brings a very slight increase of 21 homes in inventory.  Thus, twenty-three out of the last 27 months now have seen Orlando Florida’s regional housing inventory decline. Currently there are now only 8,094 housing units on the market through the Orlando Regional Multiple Listing Service - down from 9,258 in January of this year.  This includes single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes. Last October held an inventory of 9,973. In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market.  At the very height of inventory in early 2007, there were more than 28,000 homes on the market. The overall inventory is down 18.84% from a year ago.   

Single family inventory is down 21.49% from a year ago, but condo inventory is down 3.57%. The current pace of sales equates to only 3.33 months of supply.  Inventory hasn’t been this low since the boom in 2005. Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a buyer’s market and anything below is then considered a seller’s market. 

Sales 

There were 2,434 closings in October in the Orlando Florida Regional Market, a 6.01% increase over  September, and a 14.17% increase from a year ago.   

Of the sales in October, 1,148 or 47.17% were “normal”, 725 were short sales and 561 were bank-owned. The number of normal sales increased by 29.86% compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by 1.36%. This reflects the trend of normal sales increasingly taking more and more of the sales total than those sales under distressed conditions. 

Single Family Home sales increased by a whopping 20.13% over a year ago. Condo sales increased by 2.33%.  Townhome & Villa sales decreased 10.8% from a year ago.      

Homes spent an average of 79 days on the market in October, five days less than last month and three weeks less than a year ago. The averagehome sold for 96.29% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 15.09% from last October, Orange County was up 9.63%. Osceola came in down 4.69%, and Lake County increased by 22.49%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The median price of an existing home was up 9.24% in October 2012 from a year ago to $122,900.  The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 15 consecutive months.  

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices rose in all categories. Normal sales rose 4.61% to $159,000, short sales rose 7.37% to $102,000 and Bank-Owned averages increased 8.44% to $86,750 compared to a year ago. 

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index increased to 258 and the first time homebuyer’s index also increased to 183, more than twenty points lower than it was 90 day ago. 

Each index is inversely proportional to pricing changes. An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that buyers have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa. 

Buyers who earn the reported median income of $54,701 can qualify to buy a home from the 4,650 homes in Seminole or Orange counties priced at $317,625 or less. First time buyers who earn the reported median income of $37,197 can qualify for homes in those counties priced at $191,987 or less. 

Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for Orlando Florida – for September is 8.4%, down from August’s 8.7%.  A year ago it was 10.3%.  We are still above the current national average of 7.9%.

  WE APPRECIATE YOUR REFERRALS!

Other News

Bank Owned Sales No Longer The “Great Deal”. The time was a bank-owned price meant as much as a 30% discount from the then-current market. With inventories tightening – today’s discounts for bank owned properties vary anywhere from 2 to 9% - and in Las Vegas and Phoenix there is no discount anymore. In the Orlando area it now averages only 4.6% - down from 24.4% just a few years ago. 

Amendment Four Fails. Florida voters soundly rejected Amendment Four which would have limited property taxes increases permitted by local government. Requiring a 60% majority to pass – the amendment, like most amendments this cycle – did not even get a simple majority. 

Florida Ranks Nationally for Business Climate.   Florida tied with Georgia for the number 6 spot in the annual 2012 Executive Survey Business Climate rankings study. 

Children Benefit More with Homeownership.   Three California professors conducted a study in conjunction with several housing organizations and found that children of homeowners stay in school longer and face a lower incidence of teen pregnancy than their renter counterparts. The 12-17 year old group benefited the most.

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.