Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update November 2010

ORLANDO FLORIDA REGIONAL

HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

NOVEMBER 2010

The latest data are in for Central Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board for November 2010:

Inventory 

Currently there are now 15,192 “units” on the market through the Orlando Multiple Listing Service.  This is another decrease of 249 units from October’s inventory and November 2010’s inventory is 810 units lower than it was in November 2009. This is the 4^th month in a row that overall inventory has decreased, and it continues the trend of declining inventory year over year.    

There are 12,083 single family homes on the market – virtually unchanged from last month – but almost 3% more than were on the market last year at this time. Condos account for 1,871, down from 2,011 listings last month and townhomes & duplexes round out the numbers with 1,238, also down from 1,306 last month. The current pace of sales equates to 8.22 months worth of supply, virtually unchanged from last month’s 8.35 month supply. Last November the supply was 6.87 months. Six months of supply is generally considered balanced.   Anything above is generally considered a buyer’s market and anything below is then considered a seller’s market.

Sales 

The pace of Orlando home sales in slowed again in November. There were 1,953 (revised) closed sales in October – but only 1,848 in November, a decrease of 105 and more than 20% fewer than a year ago.    

To date, Orlando area home sales are up over 21% compared to this time last year.

The number of “Normal sales” - those between a willing homeowner and willing buyer – continues to trail bank-owned and short sales – with normal sales accounting for 33.33% of all sales (up by just under 1% from last month) and the latter groups making up 67.67%.    

Pending home sales were up in November by a little more than 4% (8,998) from November of last year (8,633).   

Condo sales decreased by more than 6% over November of last year. Duplex, townhome and villa sales are now down just under 25% from this time last year.    

Condos in the $1 - $50,000 price range continue to lead the condo sales with nearly 200 in November alone and the category which accounts for almost 55% of all condo sales this year. 

Homes spent an average of 97 days on the market in November – up 6 days from October (as was adjusted), and 12 days more than this time last year. The trend of average days in the 80-90 day range had been fairly constant for a year – but has been slowly increasing since August. The average home sold for 94.08% of its then current listing price.  “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. 

By county in the Orlando MSA, Seminole County continues to lead with a 31% increase in sales over last year. Orange County is up 18%, Lake County is up just 2% and Osceola came in at just over 12% above last year.  No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board). 

Prices 

Overall, prices have still decreased significantly from a year ago – but the gap is narrowing. The decrease in the median price of an existing home dropped by 14.63% from a year ago to $105,000 from $123,000. The November median price of $105,000 is identical to both September and October’s median price. 

The median price above encompasses all sales. The median price for Bank Owned properties’ was $78,101 up from $70,000, in October. Short Sales’ median came in at $99,950, which is also up - October’s median was $90,000.  Normal sales continue to lead the median price breakout with $159,900 down from October’s $173,000.   

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index decreased to 261 and the first time homebuyer’s index also decreased to 186.  An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that buyers have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. 

Other Discussion, Opinion and Points. 

The Trend Drags On…….Or Maybe Not?

With everyone’s attention diverted, The Holiday Season typically sees some of the slowest real estate activity of the year.  Even so, the real estate story in Central Florida continues unabated – foreclosures and short sales are plentiful in supply and prices continue to struggle. As we’ve been stating for some time now – until employment improves nothing else can change. Fortunately, the unemployment in the Orlando area dropped by more than a half a percentage point to 11.2% as of from September to October (11.8 to 11.2 – latest figures available) and is .3% lower than it was last October.  Let’s hope this becomes a trend.

Other Developments Are Positive

Some other recent developments include a substantial slowing and decrease of new foreclosures along with the first rise in loan rates in seven months.  For those of you following rates - It is important to note that mortgage rates tend to follow and be most influenced by the yields on the 10 year Treasury bonds. Those yields have been rising recently in anticipation of the Bush tax cut extension / unemployment extension compromise. Generally when stock prices rise – bonds yields have to rise to keep the investment type attractive.  The stock market has been above the 11,000 mark now for more than a month. 

A recent report from the credit bureau TransUnion predicts that the number of Florida homeowners’ delinquencies will drop by almost 25% in the next twelve months.  They cite a slowly improving unemployment picture and continued stabilization in the housing markets – particularly in those states hardest hit by the recession and housing collapse.   This contrasts with predictions of years past when virtually everyone agreed the downturn was in full swing.

In support of that, The Institute for Supply Management reported that its index of manufacturing activity came in at 56.6 for November.  Anything above 50 indicates growth. In the middle of the recession the figure was near 30. 

Finally, it has been reported by comScore, Inc. Cyber Monday spending was up more than 16% than the previous year with more than $1 Billion being spent.

So, with 2010 nearly behind us, let’s hope 2011 continues with an improving trend.

Please have a safe and Happy Holiday Season !

If you or someone you know is in the market to buy or sell a home, townhome, condo or light commercial property – please call us and let us help !

Statistical Data and Graphs

ORRA Originated Sales Nov. 2009 4.95% 16,002 3,758 3,023 8,633 1,007 636 1,047 2,329* 85* Dec. 2009 5.03% 15,549 3,485 2,984 8,163 875 1,419 916 2,410* 89* January 2010 5.05% 15,911 4,279 3,579 8,590 956 691 1,048 1,820* 89* February 2010 4.96% 16,051 4,586 4,043 9,462 960 601 1,064 1,973* 91* March 2010 4.99% 16,223 5,282 4,662 10,179 1,195 680 1,233 2,610* 91* April 2010 5.12% 15,766 5,116 5,221 10,832 1,331 579 1,540 2,644* 81* May 2010 4.89% 15,963 4,304 3,669 10,351 1,161 553 1,187 2,783* 83* June 2010 4.84% 16,304 4,470 3,736 9,625 1,343 743 1,294 3,059* 85* July 2010 4.67% 16,563 4,388 3,793 9,133 1,224 709 1,182 2,516* 84* August 2010 4.61% 16,535 4,146 3,892 8,945 1,277 613 1,285 2,566* 83* Sept. 2010 4.46% 16,359 3,984 3,654 8,713 1,169 637 1,301 2,374* 87* October 2010 4.28% 15,441 3,650 3,466 8,817 1,080 707 1,323 1,953* 91* Nov. 2010 4.48% 15,192 3,346 3,243 8,998 999 630 1,083 1,848 97

	The statistics cited and the graphical data is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.   This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.