Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update May 2015

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE

May 2015

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Belle Isle Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending 

April 2015 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

The inventory numbers moved up again this month. There are now 11,725 homes on the market, up from the 11,529 homes on the market last month. The current inventory is 10.12% higher than this time last year and up 1.07% from last month. 

Normal (aka arms-length) sale inventory is up 20.85% and bank-owned inventory is now down 1.13% from a year ago.  This is now the third month in a row this has dropped.  This has not happened since the meltdown. Short sale inventory is again down 38.02% from a year ago. 

Single family home inventory is now up 6.22% from a year ago and condo inventory is up 23.86%.  The inventory of duplexes, townhomes and villas is up 22.48% from a year ago. 

The inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were 6,937.    

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – however, as predicted in previous reports, with the rise in inventory, more of these inventoried new homes are showing up on the MLS.   

Sales 

Overall sales were up 12.34% from a year ago, but down 3.22% from last month.     

Single family home sales increased 13.20% while condo sales increased by only 1.99% as compared to last year.    

Sales of existing homes were up 13.46% when compared to last year at this time and are up 18.55% so far this year.     

Of the 3,031 closed sales in April, 2,135 or 70.44% were “normal”, 146 were short sales (4.84%) and 750 (24.74%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales increased by 17.89% compared to a year ago while the number of short sales fell by 40.65%.  Bank-owned sales increased by 17.00% over the same period. 

This marks the first time since the 2008 melt down that the normal sales have accounted for 70% or more of the total sales.  This is also the second month in a row where closings have exceeded 3,000 units in a single month.  

In addition, this is now a very well-established trend wherein the number of short sales are far fewer than bank-owned sales.  This month again is no exception and we see that foreclosure sales are way up again.  Both seem to indicate that banks are electing more and more to foreclose rather than agreeing to a short sale. This could be due to four things: 1. a working theory that a foreclosure may now end up bringing an overall higher sale price than a short sale; and/or, 2. there are fewer short sale candidates with an improved economy; and/or, 3. many of the bank sales are properties that were picked over previously and now represent the only “deals” left and thus are finally being bought; and/or 4. many foreclosures have been in process for years, often delayed by the lenders themselves, and simply can now be wrapped up. 

In addition, as the housing recovery continues (albeit at a snail’s pace), the reported percentage changes year-over-year will continue to diminish. However, as long as these numbers remain positive, indicating growth, this will be the mark of a more stable housing market environment. 

Homes spent an average of 79 days on the market in April –  the same as last month and two days longer than a year ago. The average home sold for 94.99% of its then-current listing price – which is lower than previous months. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for a lot less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 3.87-month supply. 

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 9.10% from last April, Orange County was up 19.42%. Osceola came in up 2.69%, and Lake County was up by 13.41%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The average median price of all homes sales rose 7.69% from a year ago to $175,000 which is also a 1.17% increase from March. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 45 consecutive months. The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 8.99% while condos increased by 2.60 percent. 

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 7.03% to $198,000 from this time last year. Short sale prices rose 2.96% and Bank-Owned averages increased 9.09% compared to a year ago.   

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for March was 5.1%. A year ago is was 6.0%. The “official” national average  is  currently at 5.4% .

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.