Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update July 2020

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE

July 2020

The COVID19 Pandemic continues as several areas in Florida become hotspots, including Central Florida.  However, though case numbers are up, fatalities are still down, and it appears that many are beginning to simply live with the reality that COVID19 is here to stay in some form or another for the foreseeable future.  Disney has reopened with new guidelines and requirements and many restaurants, shops and businesses continue to now operate under these same circumstances.  Most establishments now require face coverings in enclosed venues and local schools are now firming up their plans for a reopening next month.

The economic respite in Central Florida as things began to reopen here in Florida did provide a glimpse as to the potential for a full scale rebound of the economy given the chance.  Real estate proved to be no exception with a solid month for sales – but at the expense of inventory, which has not been able to keep up.  

Despite the above, as has been stated here previously, the true long term effects are still in question. As we have pointed out - the pandemic itself is separate and independent from the financial world as the economic impacts have been brought on purely by both political and social responses.  

A large question pertains to whether or not the unemployment rate will remain a symptom of dealing with the pandemic – and end when it does - or if it will end up taking on a life of its own and become its own driving factor.  In addition will be the net increase of housing through new units.  Much of that has slowed for lack of labor and materials.  The former is reportedly being impacted by the generous unemployment benefits and the latter by other countries from where much of the materials originate being shut down as well.

In the meantime – as has been stated many times in many places:  wash your hands frequently with soap and water or hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol – especially after handling anything in public, avoid touching your face with your hands (use the inside of your shirt if you must), do not shake hands, try and stay at least six feet away from one another, and stay home if you feel ill. 

This Month’s Report………

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Geneva Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, Sorrento Florida, Winter Park Florida, Wedgefield Florida, Avalon Park Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board report ending June 2020 (the latest now available):

Inventory

The inventory has dropped again this month.  There are now fewer homes available on the market (6,557) than there were in 2011 when the market crash inventory bottomed out (6,937). This month’s numbers are 18.6% lower than this time last year and down 9.7% from last month alone. While sales were robust this month (see below) – the inventory drop may lead to a slowdown all on its own for lack of inventory.

Single family home inventory is now down 26.8% from last year and down almost 12% from last month. Condo inventory and townhome inventory are also down 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively.

Homes spent an average of 52 days on the market, five days more than last month and 6 days more than two months ago. Last year it was 51 days and two years ago it was 47 days.   At the current pace of sales, there is is now an overall average of just 2.1 months.  

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, there are other factors which weigh into supply times.  Primarily location and price point are the two other significant influencers.  Great locations will move faster than the average market and lower price points tend to move faster as well.  

Regardless of what you tend to hear – there is no true Seller’s market - Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment. That is, Buyers decide if they are willing to, or can, pay more, and by how much, in response to demand, inventory, location and price point.

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YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY –

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Sales 

There were 3,103 sales (actual closed sales from MLS listings) in June, which was 9% less than a year ago, but a whopping 45.9% increase from May.    

While the number of distressed sales were slightly up from the previous month, they were still 25.6% less than a year ago. This would make sense as it may be related to COVID 19 – the foreclosure process takes longer than the current economic shut down has lasted. 

Pending sales – a forward indicator – which had been dropping at the start of the shutdown, has jumped two months in a row.  This month it is up by almost 12%.  

IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO BUY OR SELL

YOUR HOME OR PROPERTY –

PLEASE CONTACT US AND FIND OUT HOW WE CAN HELP!

Prices

The median (usually close to the average) price of all homes sales was $265,000, up 6.0% from a year ago, and up 1.9% from May, 2020.  

The year over year median price for a single family home was up 3.7% from the previous year at this time to $280,000. Condos posted an increase of 4.9% over last year at this time coming in at $141,000 and townhouses increased just 0.5% to $219,500. 

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers.  For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood.  Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often.

Price points and sales pace are heavily influenced by location and price-point market segment.   That is, generally homes in the $250,000 - $350,000 range will sell faster and can sell for more per square foot than a home at the $2 million price point because there are far more buyers capable of affording the lower priced home.  Thus, there is more competition amongst that group vying for that particular home.

If one were to add in the location consideration as well, homes in the most desirable locations can sell for many times more than the same home would sell for in an inferior location.  Of course this multiple times the value factor is diminished the higher the price point.

This can be illustrated in the locations and price points most production builders opt for in Central Florida.  Here, we don’t generally see subdivision production builds of homes in the $1M and up range  - but in the $300s-$500s is fairly common. 

Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for May was 23.2%.  Last year it was 2.8% at this time. The national average dropped again in June to 11.1%.   

Average Orlando MSA Interest Rates* 

The average interest rate paid in the Orlando MSA is now incredibly flirting with breaking 3%.  The average over the past month has been 3.04%, down from 3.22% last month.  Home loan rates tend to generally trend along with the ten-year US Treasury bond markets. However the rates for specialty loans are influenced directly by the secondary investor market – those who purchase loan packages after closing.  

Market Summaries

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*The interest rate statistic is over all types of loans with varying terms, conditions, circumstances and credit scores, and should be used as trend reference number only.  Consult your lending representative for rates that would apply to you.

The statistics cited are provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.