Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update July 2011

ORLANDO FLORIDA REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

July 2011

The latest data are in for Central Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board for July 2011:

Inventory 

Again the downward trend of inventory continues! Currently there are now only 10,349 housing units on the market through the Orlando Regional Multiple Listing Service – a drop of more than 1,100 units from April’s 11,480 and 210 fewer homes than were available last month. This equates to a 53% drop in inventory from a year ago. Last year at this time there were 16,563 homes on the market. For comparisons, last June there were 16,304 homes on the market and in December of 2008, there were 22,524 units on the market.    

There are now only 9,869 single family homes on the market. In addition, Condo inventory is still down 53% from a year ago. The current pace of sales equates to only 4.82 months worth of supply. Six months of supply is generally considered balanced.   Under normal conditions, anything above is generally considered a buyer’s market and anything below is then considered a seller’s market. 

Sales 

July sales of existing homes were down almost 10% percent from July 2010.  Sales year-to-date are down just under 2%. 

Of the 2,147 sales in July, 904 were “normal”, 635 were short sales and 607 were bank-owned.  This continues the solid 6 month trend now where normal sales have outpaced short sales.   

Condo sales decreased by almost 38% in July when compared to last year at this time. The under $50,000 price range accounted for 44% of those sales and have dominated condo sales since March of 2009. Duplex, townhome and villa sales were also down by more than 28% over this time last year. Most of these housing types sold in the $100,000 to $120,000 price range.   

Homes spent an average of 101 days on the market in July, one day less than last month. The average home sold for 95% of its then current listing price – virtually unchanged from last month. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price.

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County is now up 2.5%, Orange County was down almost 18%. Osceola came in down 10%, but Lake County has continued its reversal up again a little more than 13%.  No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The median price of an existing home rose to $117,000 from last month’s $110,000, which is an increase of 7.64% from a year ago and up 23.3 % this year.  

Remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. The median price for Bank Owned properties’ was $80,000, almost unchanged from last month. Short Sales’ median came in at $98,000, virtually the same from last month.  Normal sales price continues to lead the median price breakout with $158,000.  Keep in mind that many times Bank Owned properties require extensive repair work which can be reflected in the price. 

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index decreased to 235 and the first time homebuyer’s index also decreased to 167. 

This has been see-sawing backing and forth for some time now and is inversely proportional to pricing changes. 

An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that buyers have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa. 

Orlando Unemployment

 In December 2009 the rate was 11.3%. In   December of 2010 it was 11.8%. The latest numbers for Orlando Florida – for June 2011 - we increased from May’s 9.9% to 10.4%.  Last June we stood at 11.2%.  

Other Discussion, Opinion and Points.

The Stats Still Say Its All About Jobs…. 

The trends continue again this month.  Inventory continues to decline and prices are now beginning to increase.  Many of these trends have 6 months of history or more – inventory declines are now at month thirteen. 

Much of the long-term inventories are simply homes that no one wants – mostly due to their poor condition.  They include homes which have been stripped of kitchens, appliances, plumbing and/or fixtures.  Most homes priced in the market and in decent shape are selling relatively quickly and multiple offers on desirable short sales and bank-owned properties are common. 

The upside of this is that it has managed to happen without any high profile government programs in place.  In fact, this may account for the decline in the number of sales year over year.  Last year the $8,000 tax credit program had just ended and those closings were still taking place in July.  

The wild card in all of this is the persistent talk of banks holding vast inventories of properties which will at some point flood the market.   This has been bantered about now for more than a year and has yet to materialize – so we will just have to wait and see how this pans out one way or the other.  While wide swings in the market may look chaotic – in the long run the open market is very efficient at eventually finding equilibrium. 

We maintain that the only government involvement needed is in the area of job creation.  Unemployment refuses to ease and this drives everything else.  No one can afford a mortgage without a job - period.  This would easily explain why we are not calling the current lack of inventory a housing shortage. 

Until next month……

Tidbits

Most Mortgage Brokers Bail Out. In 1997 there were some 82,000 mortgage brokers inFlorida.  Approximately only 10,000 remain due to the housing crash and new licensing rules, including background checks and increased penalties. 

Fed Announces Low Rates for Two Years.  On August 9^th, the Fed announced it would keep interest rates at their present record lows for the next two years – through mid 2013.  It was a result of an acknowledgment that the U.S. Economy is still in a stall.

International Buyers Buying Up Florida Real Estate.  Investors with ties around the world, includingHong Kong,Argentina andMalaysia, are buying up properties in a sense that the local markets have reached bottom.  One Argentinean firm has purchased 307 condos inSouth Florida alone over the last two years. 

Lenders Become Investors.  Called Shared Appreciation Modifications or SAMs,  some lenders will now will write down the principals owed on property to 95% of its current market value and then forgive the difference in 1/3 increments over time as long as the borrower remains current on the modified loan.  When the property is sold, the borrower must share 25% of the appreciation with the lender and are allowed to keep the remaining 75%.  

Military Personnel Tax Exemption Now Available.  Thought it was passed last year, military personnel who were deployed during a particular tax year can now apply to get a property tax exemption in proportion to how long they were deployed.  For example, if an owner was deployed for 9 months of the year, they would be entitled to a 75% exemption in addition to their homestead and/or other exemptions (such as being able to keep their homesteaded status even if they are transferred out of the state).  The exemption is not automatic – it must be applied for at the County Office in which the military person lives.

Statistical Data and Graphs

ORRA Originated Sales July 2010 4.67% 16,563   4,388 3,793 9,133 1,224 709 1,182 2,516* 84* August 2010 4.61% 16,535   4,146 3,892 8,945 1,277 613 1,285 2,566* 83* Sept. 2010 4.46% 16,359   3,984 3,654 8,713 1,169 637 1,301 2,374* 87* October 2010 4.28% 15,441   3,650 3,466 8,817 1,080 707 1,323 1,953* 91* Nov. 2010 4.48% 15,192   3,346 3,243 8,998 999 630 1,083 1,936* 96* Dec. 2010 4.92% 14,993   3,444 3,196 8,363 952 1,189 1,039 2,467* 97* January 2011 4.84% 14,398   3,478 3,747 8,777 1,009 573 1,102 2,041* 96* Feb. 2011 4.88% 13,480   3,202 3,777 9,223 934 499 1,018 2,170* 99* March 2011 4.91% 12,533   4,152 4,526 9,510 820 504 1,098 2,613* 103* April 2011 4.89% 11,480 72 3,391 4,156 9,955 788 458 1,161 2,464* 104* May 2011 4.66% 10,969 282 3,145 3,678 10,210 841 396 869 2,486* 104* June 2011 4.56% 10,559 461 3,204 3,680 10,087 851 485 848 2,611* 102* July 2011 4.53% 10,349 627 2,912 3,244 9,869 786 399 770 2,147 101 ORRA Originated Sales

The statistics cited and the graphical data is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.