Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update August 2016

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE

August 2016

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board report ending July 2016 (the latest now available):

Inventory

Inventory numbers inched slightly upward again this month. This continues the pattern of the past twelve or so months whereby inventory has ebbed and flowed but overall remained steady. There are now 10,648 homes on the market homes, up 19 homes from last month’s 10,629. Previous to that there were 10,553 on the market. The inventory was 10,777 at the beginning of the year and a year ago this month there were 11,819 homes on the market. Two years ago there were 12,093 on the market. The current inventory is 9.91% lower than this time last year but barely up by 0.18% from last month.  

These inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes. For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were only 6,937.

Normal (aka arms-length) sale inventory is up 1.01%% from last year and bank-owned inventory is now down again by 66.79% from a year ago. This is the seventeenth month in a row this inventory number has dropped. Short sale inventory declined again and is down by 47.83% from a year ago.

Single family home inventory is down 8.66% from a year ago, and the condo inventory is down by 15.16%. The inventory of duplexes, townhomes and villas is down 11.72% from a year ago.

What is notable in the above statistics is that all over the Orlando MSA there have been numerous housing starts and new communities developed. Despite all of the new inventory by new home builders – which does not typically show up on the Multiple Listing Service – the inventory numbers on the MLS continue to remain steady. This infers that much of this new inventory is being readily absorbed.

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Sales

There were 3,342 closings (actual sales) in July – a decrease of 6.02% from last month and a decrease of 6.28% from a year ago.

Single family home sales decreased 6.83% and condo sales were down 7.65% as compared to a year ago.

Of the sales in July, 88.84% (2,969) were normal, arms-length transactions. Short sales made up only 2.99% (100) and Bank Owned properties rounded out the total with 8.17% (273).

The number of normal sales increased 10.45% as compared to a year ago. At the same time, bank-owned sales were down 62.91% and short sales were down 29.58% from a year ago.

Homes spent an average of 60 days on the market in June – two days less than last month, and nine days less than a year ago. The average home sold for 97.28% of its then-current listing price – which is generally a little more than usual. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions. Thus, it may have ended up selling for a lot less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 3.19 month supply – virtually unchanged from last month’s 3.24.

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales. Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”. However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Regardless of what you tend to hear – there is no true Seller’s market - Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment.

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down 7.33% from last July, Orange County was down 5.53%. Osceola came in down 7.03%, and Lake County was down by 8.40%. No statistics such as these for east Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA. In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

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Prices

The median (usually the average) price of all homes sales rose 12.04% from a year ago to $205,383, and up .78% from last month. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 60 consecutive months – five years of consecutive gains!

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales types. Individual types fluctuate at different rates. The median price for a normal-sale single family existing home was $217,000 - a year-over-year increase of 6.90%. Bank Owned prices increased by 4.92% while short sale prices decreased by 3.20% compared to last year.  

The median price of a single family home increased by 14.50% as compared to last year. Condos were up 9.20%.

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers. For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood. Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often.

Price points are heavily influenced by location and price-point market segment.   That is, generally homes in the $200,000 - $300,000 range will sell faster and can sell for more per square foot than a home at the $2 million price point because there are far more buyers capable of affording the lower priced home. Thus, there is more competition amongst that group vying for that particular home.

If one were to add in the location consideration as well, homes in the most desirable locations can sell for many times more than the same home would sell for in an inferior location. Of course this multiple times the value factor is diminished the higher the price point.

This can be illustrated in the locations and price points most production builders opt for in Central Florida. Here, we don’t generally see subdivision production builds of homes in the $1M and up range - but in the $300s is fairly common.

Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for June was 4.50%, up from May’s 4.0% and April’s 4.1%. A year ago it was 5.2%. The “official” national average is currently at 4.9%, unchanged from last month.

Average Interest Rates

The average interest rate paid in the Orlando MSA last month was 3.45%, unchanged from last month, but down from May’s 3.62 and April’s 3.63 and March’s 3.70*.

Graphical Summary

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*The interest rate statistic is over all types of loans with varying terms and conditions and should be used as trend reference number only. Consult your lending representative for rates that would apply to you.

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only. The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein. Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.