Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update August 2014

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE

August 2014 

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending

July 31, 2014 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

Again, the area inventory numbers continue to rise. There are now 12,093 on the market up from 11,518 homes last month.  Last year at this time there were 8,099, a 49.31% increase in inventory from a year ago, and a 4.99% increase from last month.   

Normal sale inventory is up 53.52% and bank-owned inventory is up 97.10% while short sale inventory is down 1.59% from a year ago.

Single family home inventory is up 52.34% from a year ago and  condo inventory is up 37.40%.  

The inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were 6,937.    

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – as predicted in previous reports, with the rise in inventory, which tends to slow the pace of sales, more of these inventoried new homes are showing up on the MLS.   

Sales 

Overall sales were down 17.82% from a year ago and down 14.22% from last month. 

Of the 2,431 closed sales in July, 1,637 or 67.34% were “normal”, 202 were short sales (8.31%) and 592 (24.35%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales decreased by 14.34% compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by 61.81%.  Bank-owned sales increased by 14.29% over the same period. 

The trend of fewer short sales than bank-owned sales has been firmly established now and this month is no exception. Both seem to  indicate that banks are electing more and more to foreclose rather than agreeing to a short sale. This could be due to three things: 1. a working theory that a foreclosure may now end up bringing an overall higher sale price than a short sale; and/or, 2. there are fewer short sale candidates with an improved economy; and/or 3. many foreclosures have been in process for years, often delayed by the lenders themselves, and can now be wrapped up.     

Single Family Home sales decreased 16.39% from a year ago, while condo sales were down 19.45%.   

Homes spent an average of 73 days on the market in July –  two days more than last month and ten days more than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.61% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 4.97 month supply. 

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at a particular moment. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down 1.61% from last July, Orange County was down 7.42%. Osceola came in down 9.59%, and Lake County was down by 9.94%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The average median price of all homes sales has risen 8.92% from a year ago to $171,000. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 37 consecutive months.  

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 8.11% to $200,000 from this time last year. Short sale prices rose 6.53% and Bank-Owned averages decreased 10.40% compared to a year ago.

Orlando MSA Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for June was 5.8%, down from 5.9% from the previous month.  A year ago it was 6.7%. The national average is currently at 6.2%  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of Pointe Central Florida Realty Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.