Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update August 2013

ORLANDO FLORIDA REGIONAL

HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

August 2013

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending July 31, 2013 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

Inventory rose substantially this past month to 8,099 from 7,616 homes last month.  This is the 4^th consecutive month that the inventory has risen and represents 1,162 more homes on the market than 4 months ago and is almost the same inventory number as a year ago.  At this time, it appears the inventory numbers bottomed out at 6,937 in March. However, this still represents only 2.86 months of supply – 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market.  

The inventory includes single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market.  The overall inventory is now down only .09%% from a year ago and up 6.34% from last month.  

The inventory shortage has prompted multiple builders to break ground on multiple new communities / subdivisions from the raw land stage (as opposed to buying out existing projects in distress).   

Single family home inventory is still down 2.15% from a year ago, but condo inventory is up 2.53%. The current pace of sales equates to only 2.86 months of supply, down slightly from last month’s 2.97. Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price.

Sales

Overall sales were up 15.28% from a year ago and 6.67% higher than last month.  

Of the sales in July, 1,855 or 65.41% were “normal”, 490 were short sales (17.28%) and 491 (17.31%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales increased by 55.88% compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by 29.39%. Bank-owned sales decreased by 14.76%. This continues the now-standing long-term trend of normal sales taking more and more of the sales total than those sales under distressed conditions.    

Single Family Home sales increased by 17.89% over a year ago. Condo sales were down 1.14% and villa/townhome sales were up 19.81%.      

Homes spent an average of 62 days on the market in June –  four fewer days than last month, and almost three weeks (20 days) less than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.69% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 13.08% from last June, Orange County was up 10.30%. Osceola came in up 4.02%, and Lake County increased by 25.54%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The median price of a home rose 24.60% from a year ago to $157,000 and almost 2% more than last month. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 25 consecutive months.  

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 10.45% to $185,000 from last year, short sales rose 13.64% to $125,000 and Bank-Owned averages increased 16.99% to $105,000 compared to a year ago.

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index decreased to 180.54 from 190.84 and the first time homebuyer’s index also decreased to 128.38 from 135.71. 

Each index is inversely proportional to pricing changes. An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that average buyers earning average incomes (adjusted for the MSA) have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa.

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for Orlando Florida – for June is 6.76%, up from 6.6 in May.  A year ago it was 8.6%. The national average was 7.6%  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.