Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update August 2012

ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

August 2012

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, and Sanford Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board for 

JULY 2012 (the latest now available): 

Inventory 

Inventory has dropped again. This continues the long-term decline in residential inventory in the Orlando market. Twenty-two out of the last 24 months has seen Orlando Florida’s housing inventory decline. Currently there are now only 8,106 housing units on the market through the Orlando Regional Multiple Listing Service - down from 9,258 in January of this year and 8,136 last month.  This includes single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes. Last July held an inventory of 10,349. In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market.  At the very height of inventory in early 2007, there were more than 28,000 homes on the market. 

Overall inventory is down 21.67% from a year ago. Single family inventory is down 25.46%. The current pace of sales equates to only 3.44 months worth of supply.  Inventory hasn’t been this low  since 2005. Six months of supply is generally considered balanced.   Under normal conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a buyer’s market and anything below is then considered a seller’s market. 

Sales 

There were 2,355 home sales in July an increase of 2.66% over last July.   

Of the sales in July, 1,132 or 48.07% were “normal”, 664 were short sales and 559 were bank-owned. This continues the trend where normal sales make up almost half of the sales now – a striking contrast to a year ago when almost 70% of the sales were distressed.     

Single Family Home sales increased by 6.52% over a year ago. Condo sales decreased by almost 17.1% in July when compared to last year at this time – much of it due to a lack of quality inventory.  As has been true since 2009 the $1-$50,000 price category leads the pack in sales. Two hundred nine duplex, townhome and villa sales occurred in July – an increase of 10.68% over a year ago. Most fell within the $100,000 - $120,000 price range.    

Homes spent an average of 82 days on the market in July, three days less than last month and almost three weeks less than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.14% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down one half of one percent from last July, Orange County was up 2.4%. Osceola came in down 7.65%, and Lake County increased by 11.26%.No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The median price of an existing home jumped 8.87% in July 2012 from a year ago to $125,750. This is an increase of 16.44% since January of this year and more than 32% since January 2011. 

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices rose in all categories. Normal sales rose 6.69%, short sales rose 12.7% and Bank-Owned averages increased 12.5%. 

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index decreased to 242 and the first time homebuyer’s index also decreased to 172, more than twenty points lower than it was 90 day ago. 

This had been see-sawing backing and forth for some time, but is now trending downward as prices continue to increase.  Each index is  inversely proportional to pricing changes. 

An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that buyers have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa.

Orlando Unemployment

The latest numbers for Orlando Florida – for June 2012 is 8.6% up from May’s 8.3% - but down from 10.6% a year ago.  The national average in June was 8.3%.

Other Discussion, Opinion, Points and Tidbits.  

The inventory here continues to drop and the prices continue to rise. Great news for many homeowners – or so we would think. But, we are still selling homes generally at prices which are either at or still below what it would cost to replace them and many Sellers are just happy to get out with only losing their equity vs. facing foreclosures and deficiency judgments. Still – today’s market is far better than it was just a year or two ago and housing price authority Case-Schiller has finally, after six years of decline, stated that home prices have finally stabilized in most markets. 

Economic ups and downs have been occurring since the first coins where paid for the first goods or services.   However, this overall economic recovery is now recognized as the longest since the crash in 1929. As we have maintained for – unfortunately years now – employment and jobs are the keys to any sustained recovery. 

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) now estimates that Obamacare will actually cost taxpayers an additional $1.68 TRILLION dollars in its first ten years despite being originally touted as a cost-cutting and money-saving measure. This ignores the additional costs of private capital sitting on the sidelines (which it tends to do when economic uncertainty persists) while the implementation is worked out over the next five years. 

With his fundamental philosophical revealing “you didn’t build that….” statements in Roanoke Virginia last month, we cannot expect the current administration to consider how tax increases affect and hamper small businesses – the very heart of the employment engine in every city – including those in the Orlando Florida area. 

The unfortunate fall-out we face from the status-quo will again be the delay in the creation of jobs and hiring here locally. Money that would be available to pay local wages which fuel local businesses and local tax coffers will be siphoned away to Washington where DC politicians think they know what is best.  Solyndra anyone? 

Tidbits 

Real Estate Price Index Launches In September.  Coming in September, the Florida Realtors Association will implement a Real Estate Price Index for Florida which will allow the public to note at a glance which way housing prices in Florida in general are trending. 

Home Loan Late Payments Hit 3-year Low in Q2.  Though it is still more than twice the average before the housing crash, 5.49 % of all mortgages were delinquent in the second quarter – a level not seen since 2009.  Prior to the crash, it was less than 2 percent. 

Case-Shiller Latest States Price Are Finally Stabilizing.  After six years of predicting falling prices, Case Shiller’s latest analysis of 380 U.S. markets states that prices have finally stabilized in most markets and many are poised rise.  Florida is mixed – having four of the worst and four of the best markets.  

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire-Hathaway Investment Pays Off.  Having invested in several companies in the housing market, BH reported that its revenues from housing had gone up some $40 million – 11 percent – in the second quarter. Having never split - one share of the A class shares costs $127,078.  

Short Sale Tax Break Ending.  Normally, when a bank forgives debt, the debtor owes federal income tax on the amount forgiven as if he or she had earned that money. For the past five years, this has been suspended.  At the end of 2012 this suspension will end and once again short sellers will owe tax on the amount a lender forgives.  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.