Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update April 2016

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE  

April 2016

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Belle Isle Florida, Maitland Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending March 2016 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

Inventory numbers inched back down again this month.  This continues the pattern of the past eight or so months whereby inventory has slowly declined. There are now 10,583  homes on the market, down slightly from 10,696 and down from 10,777 last month. A year ago there were 11,529. Two years ago there were even fewer with 10,343 on the market.  The current inventory is 8.21% lower than this time last year and 1.06% lower than last month.  

These inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were only 6,937.  

Normal (aka arms-length) sale inventory is up 4.80% from last year and bank-owned inventory is now down again by a staggering 62.22% from a year ago.  This is the fourteenth month in a row this inventory number has dropped.  Short sale inventory continues to decline and is down by 40.92% from a year ago. 

Single family home inventory is down 6.35% from a year ago, and the condo inventory is down by 16.31%.  The inventory of duplexes, townhomes and villas is down 8.10% from a year ago.

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – some  of these inventoried new homes are now showing up on the Regional MLS.  

Sales

There were 3,022 closings (actual sales) in March – a decrease of 3.51% from a year ago, but an impressive 25.13% increase from February.   

Single family home sales decreased 2.54% and condo sales were down 6.09%.   

Of the sales in March, 83.45% were normal, arms-length transactions. Short sales made up only 3.28% and Bank Owned properties rounded out the total with 13.27%.

Homes spent an average of 70 days on the market in March –  twelve days less than the previous month and six days fewer than a year ago. The average home sold for 97.14% of its then-current listing price – which is a tad more than usual. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for a lot less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 3.58 month supply - down from last month.  

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Despite what you may hear otherwise: Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down .97% from last March, Orange County was down 3.52%. Osceola came in down 6.56%, and Lake County was down by 8.21%. No statistics such as these for east Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The median (usually the average) price of all homes sales rose 10.12% from a year ago to $195,000, and up 5.41% from last month. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 56 consecutive months.  

The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 9.74% while condos increased 16.56%.

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales types. Individual types fluctuate. Normal (no distress) sales was nearly identical to this time last year at $203,970. Short sales increased in price by 15.38% and Bank Owned properties increased in price by 8.11%. 

The difference between the median and average most times is very small – especially as the sample size increases. The technical difference is that the median is the sales price number in the exact middle of the number of sales – that is exactly where half of the sale prices are lower and half are higher. The average price is the total sales prices divided by the total number of sales. The median is less influenced by fringe numbers – ones very large or very small as compared to the usual numbers.  For example, a million dollar sale in a $200,000 neighborhood or a $50,000 sale in the same neighborhood.  Just for completeness – the mode is the sales price number that is repeated most often. 

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for February was 4.4%, down from January’s 4.7%. A year ago is was 4.8%. The “official” national average is currently at 4.9% .

Average Interest Rates 

The average interest rate paid in the Orlando MSA last month was 3.70 slightly less than last month’s 3.75*. 

*The interest rate statistic is over all types of loans with varying terms and conditions and should be used as trend reference number only. 

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.