Orlando Florida Regional Housin Update July 2015

THE ORLANDO FLORIDA

REGIONAL HOUSING

MARKET UPDATE

July 2015

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Heathrow Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Debary Florida, New Smyrna Beach Florida, Apopka Florida, Orlando Florida, Belle Isle Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending 

June 2015 (the latest now available):

Inventory 

The inventory numbers moved up yet again this month. There are now 12,058 homes on the market, up from 11,798 homes last month.  Even though there were 3,435 closings last month, the current inventory is still 4.69% higher than this time last year and up 2.2% from last month. 

The inventory numbers include all homes: single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market. In March 2013, which was where inventory bottomed out, there were only 6,937. 

Normal (aka arms-length) sale inventory is up 16.76% and bank-owned inventory is now down 20.51% from a year ago.  This is now the fifth month in a row this has dropped.  Short sale inventory is again down a significant 38.90% from a year ago. 

Single family home inventory is actually only up 1.51% from a year ago, but the condo inventory is up 18.38%.  The inventory of duplexes, townhomes and villas is up 11.21% from a year ago.

This inventory is what is reflected on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). While it is typical for new home construction companies to elect not to put any or only a portion of their inventory on the MLS – however, as predicted in previous reports, with the rise in inventory, more of these inventoried new homes are showing up on the MLS.  

Sales 

Overall sales were up a robust 21.21% from a year ago, and up 10.20% from last month.    

Single family home sales increased 22.70% while condo sales decreased by 12.92% as compared to last year.  

Sales of existing homes (i.e. excluding new construction) were up 19.78% when compared to last year at this time and are up 18.61% so far this year.     

Of the 3,435 closed sales in June, 2,540 or 73.94% were “normal”, 134 were short sales (3.90%) and 761 (22.15%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales increased by 31.40% compared to a year ago while the number of short sales fell by 42.24%.  Bank-owned sales increased by 13.75% over the same period. 

This marks the third month since the 2008 melt down that the normal sales have accounted for 70% or more of the total sales.    

In addition, this is now a very well-established trend wherein the number of short sales are far fewer than bank-owned sales.  This month again is no exception and we see that foreclosure sales are way up again.  Both seem to indicate that banks are electing more and more to foreclose rather than agreeing to a short sale. This could be due to four things: 1. a working theory that a foreclosure may now end up bringing an overall higher sale price than a short sale; and/or, 2. there are fewer short sale candidates with an improved economy; and/or, 3. many of the bank sales are properties that were picked over previously and now represent the only “deals” left and thus are finally being bought; and/or 4. many foreclosures have been in process for years, often delayed by the lenders themselves, and simply can now be wrapped up. 

As the housing recovery continues, the reported percentage changes year-over-year will continue to diminish. However, as long as these numbers remain positive, indicating growth, this will be the mark of a more stable housing market environment. 

Homes spent an average of 67 days on the market in June –  five fewer than last month and six days fewer than a year ago. The average home sold for 97.02% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for a lot less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. At the current pace of sales, there is a 3.51 month supply. 

Estimated Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price no matter what the inventory numbers are at any particular moment. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 28.42% from last June, Orange County was up 20.55%. Osceola came in up 16.43%, and Lake County was up by 10.22%. No statistics such as these for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

Prices 

The average median price of all homes sales rose 7.73% from a year ago to $181,500 which is also a 0.28% increase from May. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 47 consecutive months. The year-over-year increase for single family homes was 8.11% while condos increased 8.77%. 

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 6.90% to $205,250 from this time last year. Short sale prices fell 2.96% and Bank-Owned averages increased 16.13% compared to a year ago.   

Interest Rates 

The average interest rate for June 2015 was 4.08 percent.   In May it was 3.92 percent.  A year ago it was 4.17 percent.

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for the Orlando Florida MSA – for May was 5.2%. A year ago is was 5.9%. The “official” national average is currently at 5.5% .

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.